Every few years on the stock market, a massive opportunity comes along and knocks on the door. However, the problem if you open the door is that it can be hard to tell whether it's a massive opportunity for you or someone else - whether the seething glob of dollar signs, gold bars, gemstones and old rope smiling at you is there to make you money or take your money.
The dot com mania, for example, was a wonderful opportunity for the people flogging rubbish to take your money. The resources boom on the other hand has been making money for everyone fortunate enough to invest in the likes of BHP.
What worries people when they're deciding whether or not to open the door, is that you can't be 100 per cent sure if it's a benign or malign massive opportunity until it's gone away again.
I suspect there's one outside your door right now. You have to use your own imagination here to picture what a massive opportunity might physically look like if it had a body. I've already hinted at my version - a big, blobby, glittery, messy thing with a Cheshire Cat smile and inscrutable eyes. If you open the door, this one will say: "Hello, I'm Australian bank shares."
I interviewed an international funds manager late last year who said the message being sent by the share prices of foreign bank was either that this was a once-in-a-decade chance to make serious money, or that they're in serious trouble.
So far, it seems that in the case of many American and European banks, the message was the latter. It might yet change to the former, but the pain isn't over.
For the major Australian banks though, the share prices have fallen so far and their dividends yields have risen so far, that the return is very tempting indeed.
Australian banks are being treated by the market almost as if they have the same sorts of problems as the UK and US banks. They don't. Even the Reserve Bank is scratching its head about why the banks have fallen so far.
This morning our bank shares were hit again by the international back swing, falling sharply to new multi-year lows in many cases, before seeing a bit of a bounce. At the worst of it, ANZ shares fell as low as $17.50, CBA $38.50, NAB $25.29 and Westpac $18.83. You would have to go back to 2001 to buy NAB shares that cheaply.
At those prices - and assuming the present levels of dividends are maintained - these pillars of our financial system are have dividend yields of between about 6.5 and 7.5 per cent. Because they are fully franked dividends, you get a tax credit for the 30 per cent corporate tax the banks have already paid - so the equivalent gross-upped pre-tax yield is about 10 per cent.
That is one massive yield for solid bank stocks. It means, if you own a home, you could borrow against the house, buy a bunch of bank shares and the dividends would pay all the interest cost of the loan and a bit more, leaving you with potential capital gains for free.
This almost sounds too good to be true. What's the catch? This only works if the banks maintain their dividend payments. It's fear that they might have to reduce dividends, plus a bit of international hysteria, that's been driving down the share price.
There has been no indication from the banks that that might be the case. Even with our Reserve Bank slowing the economy, there's no suggestion that we're heading into recession and there is a very strong suggestion the resources and infrastructure boom will keep us growing. The RBA has said so.
My personal belief is that our banks will power out of the current credit crisis at some stage over the next year or so and that they will work very hard indeed to maintain dividend levels. That's why my family super fund has bought some bank shares recently - and watched them fall in price.
So, are you going to answer the door?