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Columnist Michael Pascoe

RBA cutting to the chase

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Michael Pascoe
Michael Pascoe
OK, now this is serious - the Reserve Bank has negative real interest rates i.e. the cash rate is lower than the inflation rate. Monetary policy is now very definitely expansionary.

Of course the RBA has been deadly serious for two months now, ever since it did the big 100 point slash on the first Tuesday of October.

The 25 point trimming to 7 per cent three months ago was a way of saying: "Hello, we are awake and think this spot of bother in the financial markets is a bit more serious than the problem of inflation.

The October 100 said: "Crikey, this is deep do-do we're in, we need to act fast to avoid falling face-first into it."

The 75 points off on Melbourne Cup day to 5.25 per cent said: "All right, we're cutting and we'll keep cutting to try to avoid a recession. No time for half-measures."

And today's big 100 pointer down to 4.25 per cent says: "Whatever it takes." That's what's behind the Governor's official statement.

Not that the situation needs underlining, but it is rather unusual for a conservative central bank to reduce its cash rate to 4.25 per cent when inflation is still running around 5 per cent, hence negative real interest rates.

(Of course the RBA is understandably confident that inflation is falling - one sure way to curb inflation is to reduce growth to very little, never mind the R word. We're likely to have the cash rate and inflation rate chasing each other down.)

And what's different this time is that there's a clear nudge from the RBA that the banks should pass on all of this latest cut.

"As a result of today's decision, the cash rate will be at its previous cyclical low point," writes Governor Glenn Stevens. "Given trends in money market yields, most lending rates should fall significantly and will also reach below-average levels."

The banks will know what he means - pass it on or we'll be round to thump you in our ever-so-polite central bank way.

Without wanting to scare the horses, the RBA is not being subtle about the economic risks Australia faces, particularly the slow down in the emerging economies which is kicking on to Australia through lower commodity prices. But Martin Place is still hinting that, with luck and the right policies, we can avoid a recession. It has more ammunition to fire yet and it's happy to do so.

They are hoping today's instalment will get us through December and January to their next board meeting on the first Tuesday in February. (Even central bankers have a holiday occasionally.) And then, packing away the board shorts and shaking the last sand from their thongs, they'll be ready to cut again.

There is an understandable tendency to get excited about lower interest rates for anyone with borrowings, but we need to be careful about what we wish for.

Like all forecasting games, there's a bit of a competition underway to see who can predict the lowest rate. The consensus remains that we'll have an RBA cash rate starting with a 3 before Easter, but let's hope that doesn't drop to a 2 as the odd forecaster is suggesting.

Such a low rate would mean Australia is failing to avoid a hard landing, that unemployment is rising beyond a (relatively) manageable 6 per cent.

All in all, I'd be happy if rates didn't fall much more at all, because they would reflect an economy that's still growing.

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